Are we nearing a dramatic moment in economic history? Before humans developed agriculture, the world population — and thus the world economy — doubled in size roughly every 250,000 years. After acquiring the power of agriculture, the world economy doubled in size roughly every 900 years. After the industrial revolution, growth accelerated again, and since the second world war the world economy has been doubling in size roughly every 15 years. These numbers have been collated by Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University in Virginia; they are based on educated guesses by various economic historians.
我們正接近經(jīng)濟史上的戲劇性一幕么？在人類發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)以前，全球人口（以及世界經(jīng)濟規(guī)模）大約每25萬年增長一倍。而在人類獲得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的力量之后，全球經(jīng)濟規(guī)模大約每900年增長一倍。工業(yè)革命之后，全球經(jīng)濟增長再次加速。而自二戰(zhàn)以來全球經(jīng)濟大約每15年增長一倍。上述數(shù)據(jù)是由弗吉尼亞州喬治梅森大學(xué)(George Mason University)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家羅賓?漢森(Robin Hanson)整理的，基于多位經(jīng)濟史學(xué)家給出的有歷史依據(jù)的估計。